Rays Postseason Outlook
The year in review and the months going forward.
RAYS BASEBALL
Right now...Injuries, return dates, and more
Ask yourself...
Did you really expect the Rays to be here? Did you really expect into the playoffs, and beat up on the Yankees, Red Sox & Blue Jays all year? Did anyone really expect the Rays to be 3rd in the MLB in Batting Average, tied with the Dodgers with 2 games left and just .001 below the MLB leading Brewers. We do usually expect a Rays team led by Kevin Cash to have elite pitching, limit mistakes, and quality fielding. This year has felt a little different though, we routinely have had bottom of lineup players come through clutch, mid level trade acquisitions turn into elite closers, and other acquisitions turn into power hitting middle of the order guys. New ownership has injected a sense of life into a franchise that has felt asleep for a long time, specifically during the deadline, balancing both a win now mentality and not gambling away the future. From the media pundits writing us off, even as recently as late August early September, going as far as saying the "...Yankees have the better roster." and "They'll figure it out.". To the media that has the Rays coming in 5th in the AL East before the season, truth be told thank you. You are the reason this page exists, big market bias continuing to echo through the halls of the major television networks, online bloggers, and water cooler office conversations. The fact of the matter, the Rays are here..now and have an opportunity none of their very quality predecessors have accomplished, with ownership all-in, a talented collection of players this franchise hasn't seen all at once, and last but not least a level of camaraderie and cohesive undefeated in the league. These guys have said it all year long, they are playing for each other...and that is something bigger than themselves. In conclusion, no matter what happens this year I would like to express a level of gratuity for the opportunity to be here, to enjoy postseason baseball once again and to be excited about what may come about again, it feels like it's been to damn long.
Continue reading for some storylines going into October!
The #1 priority for the Rays now is getting healthy, staying fresh, and stay hot as the ALDS arrives. They fought all year to earn a bye, and it surely will be invaluable as likely the Yankees and Red Sox face off in a 3 game set for the playoffs.
Shane McClanahan has been ruled out of the ALDS. On paper this is a huge loss and in no way am I to mitigate this. Shane has come back in a huge way and performed very well after a tumultuous couple of season injured repeatedly. Theoretically the ALDS is a 5 game set, and assuming the Rays could secure it in 3 or 4 games, McClanahan would have not even needed to pitch this series. If this was a 7 game series the alarms would be going off big time, but with the Rays having 6 effective starters I am not concerned about this. In an emergency scenario there are Long relief pitchers out of the pen that can provide a decent bulk role. Without Shane our rotation is expected to consist of (in no order), Nick Martinez, Drew Rasmussen, Freddy Peralta, Ian Seymour, & Griffin Jax. Shane essentially adds a 6th man for us, I would expect either Seymour or Jax to move to the bullpen as a replacement. I suspect it would be Seymour returning to the bullpen, as he is a lefty and both Matz & Cleavinger have struggled throughout the year so we could really use a southpaw in the pen.
Manuel Rodríguez has been activated from the 15 day IL. Another Rays pitcher with an upwards battle to recovery from the injured list, Rodriguez has been limited to 4.2 Innings this season. His return will further strengthen the pen with a veteran presence. Rodriguez has a career 3.03 ERA, 91 Ks in 104 IPs, and 27 holds in his career. I would expect Cash to give him some time on the bump over the course of the final 2 games of the season to knock some rust off, and gauge his effectiveness and health. I expect him to perform very well and be a pivotal player for the Rays pen in high leverage moments.
Tyler Wells - Regular season ending injury sent to 15 day IL on 9/13/26, Forearm tightness after a game forced the Rays to make the decision to shut him down until the postseason. Wells is unable to return until 9/29/26 which is after game 162. Comments made by both Wells and Cash seem optimistic, look for Wells to be a huge part of the bullpen as likely a set up man, which is what his role has been for the Rays after acquisition.
Garret Cleavinger - A rough season for Cleavinger, who entering the season was the Rays most effective reliever. A stint on the IL entering 9/5/26, Cleavinger has stated he was playing through some irritation in the forearm as reflected in his rough outings. I am inclined to believe him, one of the Rays most successful relievers in recent memory, a team USA WBC representative, and just an overall grossly underrated player. I think his return to the field as well as health is one of the most critical storylines of the teams post season success. I am very closely watching and hoping for a full recovery prior to the ALDS.
Who's Hot?
Who's Not?
In no particular order...
Yandy Diaz - .232 BA last 30, .161 BA last 15, & .143 BA last 7. (4 RBIs last 7 on a positive note.)
Jonathan Aranda - .269 OBP last 7, .208 BA last 7, 35 strikeouts last 30 Games
Junior Caminero - 0 HR last 7, .214 BA last 15 Games
Steven Matz - 5.56 ERA for the season, 4 ER in last 8.1 IP, given up 15 HR in 79.1 IP.
Nick Fortes - Slashing .197/.264/.364 over his last 30
In no particular order...
Jonny Deluca slashing .304/.360/.435 in BA, OBP, & SLG w/ 2 steals over last 7 .302/.333/.395 over last 15
Richie Palacios Slugging over .600 his last 15 games w/ 3 HRs, 11 RBIs, & 6 SBs & .415 OBP during same timeframe
Drew Rasmussen Sub 1 WHIP all year, 4-0 over last 7 starts, OBA is sub .200, underrated Cy Young candidate
Bryan Baker .82 WHIP last 7, 0 ERA last 7.1 IP, 41/44 SV/SVO helped secured AL East in 9th inning in New York.
Victor Mesa Jr. .313/.371/.604 BA/OBP/SLG over his last 30. 6 HR in last 96 ABs
Chandler Simpson 6 SB last 15 Games, .310 BA last 30, 94th Percentile in LF Range
Griffin Jax - 3.11 ERA over his last 75 IP of work, 38 Ks in 34 IP over last 7, 1.02 WHIP over same timeframe
World Series home Field Advantage
The only thing the Rays are playing for right now is potentially home field advantage in a World Series matchup. The MLB leading Brewers have essentially locked down Home field advantage in any matchup, Dodgers have 1 game up and the tiebreaker on the Rays and that is something to look for considering the East coast/ West Coast matchup during a 7 game set. The Dodgers have the tiebreaker and would need to lose the next couple games as the Rays win out in order to get Home field advantage, with exception to those 2 teams the Rays would have home field advantage against every other NL team, giving them an additional home game if they get to a 7 game set.