Former Ace returns to form leading up to postseason
What started as a disaster season for Freddy Peralta, has turned into a resurrection.
RAYS BASEBALL
2026 started as a disaster for Freddy Peralta, career highs in WHIP, 2nd highest ERA of his career, and down on velocity by a considerable margin during his time with the Mets. Many wondered if this was the beginning of the end for "Fastball" Freddy....
The 2 time All Star and Cy Young candidate as recently as 2025 was traded to the Mets and it was all downhill from there for not just him but that entire team. Then, as quickly as he was traded off from Milwaukee to New York, he was then shipped off again to Florida.
The Tampa pitching lab felt confident they could revamp the once elite ace back into form. There were some doubts and rightfully so, sacrificing 17 runs in his first 21.1 IP and 4 starts which equals to a towering 7.17 ERA for those counting. Nobody at this point had much faith Tampa got their money worth in trade value or if Peralta would be of any value entering the postseason.
Then something interesting happened on August 26th, we see a shred of hope Freddy Peralta gets his first Win as a Ray going 6 IP, 0 Walks, and 4 Ks. Since that day Freddy Peralta has pitched 28.2 innings sacrificing only 3 runs equaling a minuscule .94 ERA. Since shortly after the trade it has been night and day, leading into Saturday Peralta has pitched 6 IP in 5 of his last 7 starts.
It wasn't immediate though, there was some initial doubt from fans, admittedly including myself that we made a mistake on this trade and I even wondered if we should have gone for broke to get Skubal.
Peralta as a Met: 4.45 ERA/1.48 WHIP/ 3.8 BB/9
Peralta as a Ray 3.60 ERA/ .98 WHIP/ 2.2 BB/9
So what exactly changed when the Rays acquired him?
Fastball velocity for one thing. Peralta entering Saturdays game has only touched 97 MPH or above 12 times all season and only once as a Ray. For reference, Freddy Peralta hit 97 or higher in 37 different occasions in 2025. During the game against Boston he met or exceeded that velocity 6 times, about 50% of his season count to that point, the fastball was flying out of his hand on Saturday. 5 of 6 of those pitches led to an out, indicating Freddy is digging deep to throw his best time when he needs it most to get the out. Not all of the credit can go to Peralta though, the Rays pitching lab led by none other than Kyle Snyder have absolutely worked some magic.
As pictured above, The Rays have tweaked the pitch selection, leaning heavier on a plus changeup offering by Peralta using it at a 9% higher rate than with the Mets. Rightfully so, the Chang up is equally effective against LHP & RHP with a pitching run value of 4+ and 5+ respectively. Freddy Peralta is ranked 22nd in the entire league in horizontal movement on the Changeup. Giving the effect of moving away from a Left handed bat and moving in on the hands for a Right handed bat.
One would even argue it is not coincidental that the changeup in August and September, both with the Rays, have shown the highest spin rate of the season. The same can be said for the 4 Seam and Sweeper. The fastball in particular is in the top 86th percentile in spin rate. The fastball is highlighted above as having a .105 BA, .205xBA, and .177 wOBA in the month of September. Additionally, the changeup in the same time frame is performing equally as well at .095 BA, .179 xBA, and .085 wOBA. For those unfamiliar with wOBA, it stands for "Weighted On-Base Average" in short it is a statistic that treats every outcome as a batter differently and weighted as such, i.e. a single, walk, versus say a home run. Here is a link from Fangraphs with a more detailed explanation.
So lets recap
Pitching Velocity is up - hitting 97 MPH at a higher frequency in particular high leverage moments to close out innings and run prevention
Spin Rate on multiple pitches is up - Fastball, Sweeper, Changeup 3 of his 4 most utilized pitches are spinning at a high rate.
Pitch Selection using the best pitches more often- Peralta and the Rays are leaning into what works, the Change up. It's no secret Kyle Snyder loves that pitch and Freddy Peralta has one of the best in the business.
