August 16th Bullpen Analysis
After a blown save to the Orioles on Satruday night, 7 runs given up in the 6th, and countless pitches in Sundays noon game, the Rays have some tweaking to do
The bullpen has had flashes of success this year, but compared to the perpetual standard set by Rays pitching staffs, there is a lot of growth to be had. After an extra inning blown save on Saturday night (that I would accredit more to the rules than pitching) and a 7 run 6th inning on Sunday I figured today would be a great day to analyze the 'pen. Currently ranked 19th in Bullpen ERA according to insidethepen.com I believe the front office as well as the fans would like to see a little more consistency from top to bottom. Below I share the majority of the most frequented arms (pictured) in the pen and how they've performed this year.
The good...
Lets start with the obvious, Bryan Baker is having a career year. The newly appointed closer has done nothing but exceed expectations as a Ray. Beginning as a mid-season trade a couple years ago to being a legitimate lights-out closer. Baker is paving the way for the pen in high leverage moments, with a minuscule 1.6% HR rate, 1.52 ERA, and .887 WHIP . Baker has become the heartbeat of the pen, with 34 Saves in 37 attempts and 23 in a row making for a new Rays record for saves in a row.
Next arm on our list is Kevin Kelly. Another Rays pitcher having a career year with a career low in all 3 catagories1.94 ERA/.194 AVG, & .83 WHIP. Kelly had an off year in '25 and has been a favorite of Cash in mid-low leverage situations for years, but this year his play has elevated him to set up man duties as well a trust in high leverage moments. Kelly has returned the vote of confidence with stellar play and an anchor for Baker to use to finish games.
Booser & Wells have both been good when called upon. They are a strength in the bullpen and I personally am excited for both as they continue to play high leverage moments for the team. Booser in particular has been phenomenal, with a .75 WHIP & 1.93 ERA that pop off the stat sheet. Him and Kelly have been sharing set up man duties. Booser is a major boost against lefties with batters slashing an abysmal .143/.196/.286/.482. Righties aren't fairing much better.
The bad...
Steven Matz has really under performed this season. Signed by the Rays in the off season as a starter. Matz has been relinquished of duties in the rotation to try to figure it out in the 'pen. With the emergence of Ian Seymour this decision has been easy for Kevin Cash. A 5.37 ERA for Matz this year has really limited his serviceability in high leverage moments. A signing that was a signal of hope for LHP depth has become a burden the Rays seem to not know what to do with. Righties against Matz are slashing .255 AVG/.324 OBP/.509 SLG/.833 OPS, and although he is fairing much better against Lefties, 226/.267/.381/.648 the splits make high leverage moments not an option. Matz has also served as an opener for bullpen games, but with a 9.82 ERA in games he pitches the 1st inning the team has made attempts to move him around.
Team USA WBC representative Garret Cleavinger is another southpaw facing adversity out of the Rays pen. Cleavinger is posting his 2nd highest WHIP as a Ray at 1.35 and highest ERA at 3.96. On paper the numbers aren't horrible, but with Cleavinger playing so well for so long with the team the moments he enters game are increasingly painful. 11% BB rate would also rank in the bottom 20th percentile of the league. Even more concerning, lefties are slashing .288/.369/.462/.831 paired with a WHIP of 1.61. With a higher percentage of LH batters in the league than in recent memory this is an elements the Rays would love to see equalize. It's not all bad, posting a 31.2% K Rate would rank above 94% of the league.
The Verdict.
The Rays have a good bullpen. Not great but definitely functional and will secure leads. If able to maximize potential the 'pen can be better than the way they're performing. With Seymour all but securing a starting rotational role it leads me to have concerns with our back end LHPs going forward. Booser has been effective but one lefty in high leverage situations is not enough in October. I look for Cleavinger in particular to step up in a big way, he's been a very good reliever for a long time and the team could use him more than ever. Baker has taken strides in his career to be a great closer the Rays have missed for awhile. Legumina has filled bulk role nicely, Booser has pleasantly surprised, and Kevin Kelly has evolved to a genuine set up man. With McClanahan returning, Rasmussen, Martinez, Peralta & Seymour rounding out the starting rotation, I look to Jax to further support the pen in a big way. Overall, I have concerns but with one of our big lefties getting into groove I will start to feel a little better.
